Summary

The current forecast date is 26 September, showing data until 29 September.

The following Trusts/UTLAs make forecasts of hospital admissions using timeseries forecasts of COVID-19 cases (rather than EpiNow2, by default): Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Buckinghamshire), Chesterfield Royal Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Derbyshire), University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Hampshire), Portsmouth Hospitals University National Health Service Trust (UTLA: Hampshire), University Hospitals Of North Midlands NHS Trust (UTLA: Staffordshire), Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Hampshire), Kettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Northamptonshire), Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust (UTLA: Northamptonshire), University Hospitals Of Derby And Burton NHS Foundation Trust (UTLAs: Derby, Derbyshire, Staffordshire), Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Oxfordshire), Ashford And St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Surrey), Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Lancashire), Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust (UTLA: Buckinghamshire), East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust (UTLA: Lancashire)

The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:

  1. unweighted time series ensemble model (autoregressive ARIMA, ETS and naive models)
  2. regression + 7-day-lagged cases (cases mapped from UTLA to Trust using Trust-UTLA mapping in covid19.nhs.data)
  3. convolution from cases to admissions (scaled; cases mapped to Trusts as above)

All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 15 August) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.

Current forecasts

Trusts, all regions

Summary, table

Current forecast, ribbon

Forecast increase, scatter

Forecast increase, maps

Trusts, by NHS region

Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.

East of England

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West

South East

South West

National and regional

We derive forecasts of national and regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national/regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts, and then the ensemble forecast created. These are compared below to forecasts made using EpiNow2.

National (England)

Regional

Past forecasts

Trusts, all regions

National and regional