The current forecast date is 26 September, showing data until 29 September.
The following Trusts/UTLAs make forecasts of hospital admissions using timeseries forecasts of COVID-19 cases (rather than EpiNow2, by default): Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Buckinghamshire), Chesterfield Royal Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Derbyshire), University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Hampshire), Portsmouth Hospitals University National Health Service Trust (UTLA: Hampshire), University Hospitals Of North Midlands NHS Trust (UTLA: Staffordshire), Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Hampshire), Kettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Northamptonshire), Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust (UTLA: Northamptonshire), University Hospitals Of Derby And Burton NHS Foundation Trust (UTLAs: Derby, Derbyshire, Staffordshire), Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Oxfordshire), Ashford And St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Surrey), Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (UTLA: Lancashire), Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust (UTLA: Buckinghamshire), East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust (UTLA: Lancashire)
The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:
covid19.nhs.data)All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 15 August) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.
Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.
We derive forecasts of national and regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national/regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts, and then the ensemble forecast created. These are compared below to forecasts made using EpiNow2.